Where I see Afghanistan tomorrow? (After Withdrawal – Bright Future) Khanzada Sabawon
As we hear that media, ordinary people, politicians, institutions, embassies and some countries indicates that Afghanistan will face several concerns and problems after the withdrawal, however I as an Afghan have different opinion and thoughts as follow:
Afghanistan is situated in a very important part of the globe, linking several countries, particularly Central Asian, South Asian and Middle East. Beside this, having Trillions of Dollars Minerals, very wealthy culture and history & good climate, but unfortunately suffering from War from last several years, especially since seventies (1970). A well-known Afghan government was collapsed due to some concerns and changes. Those concerns could have been resolved by positive means, but unfortunately it did not happen. Since then Afghanistan did not stand on its own – several regimes got changed and still Afghans are facing dozens of problems. Most ordinary Afghans think that this revolution could not have been damaged this country to destabilize – as there were further reasons too. At present Afghanistan have several hundred reasons such as, insecurity, weak economy, lack of education and health facilities, weak administration and institutes, corruption, inadequate defense, lack of good politicians, divided tribes and lack of modern technology.
As it is clear as sun that Afghanistan will survive – Afghans are optimist. However, you may hear media, officials and ordinary Afghans saying that the withdrawal in 2014 onward would affect Afghanistan’s badly, especially bring insecurity and weakened state economy. Somehow, it is true that many people look confused and frustrated, why should not be, as the prices of property declined almost 40%, these days, little investment is being observed, no mega projects are under process, trust of people lacking against ANSF and IMF. Holding of budgets by aid agencies and UN is another concern. Since November, 2012 hundreds of people got jobless and many others will be as foreign add is being reduced. Insecurity, little infrastructure, weak judicial system and mistrust among people have compelled ordinary Afghans to leave / migrate and transferring money to abroad, which is causing serious concerns. Media covers NATO withdrawal in day to day broad casting and reporting incidents regularly, which further confuses; instead media should report infrastructure and development activities to gain hearts and motivate public, which would build government reputation.
After withdrawal three (3) different scenarios could happen such as a), worst scenario b), normal scenario and c), best scenario.
a) Worst scenario:
b) Normal scenario and
c) Best scenarios
v Worst scenario: There are chances that Afghans will face several problems after the withdrawal such as insecurity, disorder, kidnapping, extortion and assassination will happen and that would collapse state as it happened after Soviet Union defeat. Economy could fall and would give its importance. In such scenario reach and wealthy people will depart and would leave Afghanistan to abroad. However, the contribution of foreign aid and continues efforts of the state for more than10 years have been established many good things and could prolong resistance against problems, which is not enough and state should do further to minimize problems. To avoid such problem state should build strong and good links with neighbors and rest of the world on (give and take style) to stay alive, otherwise anarchy and civil war will knock the door.
v Normal scenarios: Afghans are optimist that Afghanistan will not face serious problems after the withdrawal as she is getting capable economically, especially by getting its minerals out, improved its revenue. Government should providing guaranty of safety and security to investors and convince them to invest in the country, which would minimize concerns. Having good economy can satisfy public and could provide chances to them to find jobs, improve life facilities, which could assist country’s ongoing system. As most of the rich people are trying to go abroad to secure their families and financial status, the poor ones would face serious problems due to lack of job opportunities, but the middle class can reduce this headache as they play very crucial rule in the economy and its development. Government should focus on several miner and major issues to facilitate public.
v Best scenario: Most of the people say that Afghanistan will suffer again if IMF withdraws as planned. They think that insecurity will cause problems and insufficient economy would further disturb. However, the good done of the Afghan Government and rest of the world contribution has improved a lot, it needs further improvement. Afghans and allies should sit and discuss these issues to reduce problems. Government should give priority to national interest. Politicians should avoid ethnic issues and past disputes, by doing this Afghan can re-unit and could minimize risk and problems. Once all tribes are one hand then it is assured that Afghanistan will not fall again as it happened in 1980s. At this scenario things could happen as planned. Afghans should contribute to better develop as they always try to do so. Focus on the above issues can mitigate risk and problems, there are good chances that Afghans will stay with peace and stability, would improve infrastructure, especially roads, dams, power, agriculture and defense. A good defense can assure stable situation, which could minimize state and public concerns. Large minerals, strong economy, geographical importance and strong traditional structure will support the unity to facilitate.
Recommendations: There are several recommendations, but the following are very common in my opinion – it has to be concentrated thoroughly to expedite development activities.
- Loyalty, patriotism, honesty, hard work, better contribution and services could improve nation and state. Afghans must focus on this to reduce concerns and problems.
- Government should focus on internal capacity; enhance employees’ skills and approaches to better run institutions and government to facilitate public.
- There is a strong need of unity and peace. Reconciliation process should maintain and good relationship with the neighbors and allies on give and take purpose should run – this can reduce problems and disputes.
- State should maintain good security by doing extra ordinary efforts hiring deserving people and must focus on new technology to run with world equally to minimize problems.
- State should provide equal opportunities to its public, should take good care of gender issues – women is playing an important part in development.
- State should control puppy trade and cultivation & corruption, which is damaging its reputation as we are the biggest producer of puppy and narcotics in the globe.
- State should improve education and health facilities, where most of Afghans are going abroad for treatment and health issues.
- Afghans must depend on their internal food commodities. Should install small and big factories, focus on infrastructure, improve agriculture and power along with making new dams to better facilitate – majority of Afghan are link with agriculture that could play positive rule toward food insufficiency.
- State should motivate investors by providing assurances for their life and economy. This could help Afghanistan by getting out its mineral with good margin – this is very important issue, needs urgent solutions.
- State must strengthen defense to protect country from aggression and foreign attacks.
- State must focus on its intelligence institutions to enhance capacity to better serve to minimize concerns and problems.
- Judicial system should support and expedite finding solutions towards public problems. Fast solutions could motivate public and they would bring their issues to state against militants – a bad approach against government in remote and isolated areas.
- Positive awareness should be broadcasted on regular bases to facilitate state and its institutions.
- State should invite tribal elders and influential leaders regularly to find solutions for their outstanding issues and problems.
- Afghanistan should have accountability institutions to control corruption and wrong doings.
- Afghanistan must gain foreign aid and support, and contribute positively towards internal and external problems.
Note: This is an individual personal view – having no political links and motives. Many things mentioned above could be conducted or in progress in a right direction. I am optimist that soon Afghanistan will stand on its own. Let’s put hands together and work shoulder by shoulder to reduce concerns and support building Afghanistan.
With passage of time will write further good suggestions to state and its institutions to facilitate.
Thanks,
Khanzada Sabawon,
Mob: +93 (0) 799 31 77 76
Email:Khanzada.sabawon@gmail.com
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